New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Paul CotterGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonAssists1
- Ondrej PalatPoints1
Hurricanes- Jack RoslovicGoals2
- Sean WalkerAssists2
- Jack RoslovicPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:38Jack Roslovic Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (26), Seth Jarvis (15)2–5
- P312:06Jack Roslovic Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (14), Sean Walker (6)2–4
- P310:43Jackson Blake Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (11), Brent Burns (9)2–3
- P31:56Sebastian Aho Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (8)2–2
- P31:05Ondrej Palat Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (33), Dougie Hamilton (19)2–1
- P219:30Dmitry Orlov Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (5), Seth Jarvis (13)1–1
- P22:56Paul Cotter Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:56Paul Cotter Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 0 CAR · NJ 46% → 64% +18NJ 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P219:30Dmitry Orlov Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (5), Seth Jarvis (13)NJ 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 29% → 53% +24CAR 29% → 53%+24 pts
- P31:05Ondrej Palat Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (33), Dougie Hamilton (19)NJ 2 – 1 CAR · NJ 47% → 72% +25NJ 47% → 72%+25 pts
- P31:56Sebastian Aho Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (8)NJ 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 28% → 53% +25CAR 28% → 53%+25 pts
- P310:43Jackson Blake Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (11), Brent Burns (9)NJ 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 52% → 84% +32CAR 52% → 84%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 55%
- ML NJ +115 / CAR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 59.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -124
- NJ +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.1 – 3.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CAR and NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −13 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · CAR: Dustin Tokarski: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +64 Elo | CAR 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.6% | Shot share | 55.7%1st of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.3%23rd of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3211–5 | Road vs home | 13–43rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–18 | 18–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–17 | 17–15 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–25 | 14–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–4 CAR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.