Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Brent BurnsGoals1
- Brent BurnsAssists1
- Brent BurnsPoints2
Devils- Luke HughesGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists1
- Luke HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P28:47Dawson Mercer Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (31), Brenden Dillon (9)2–4
- P24:15Luke Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (5), Jesper Bratt (32)2–3
- P20:22Brent Burns Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (7)2–2
- P116:54Nico Hischier Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Stefan Noesen (10), Luke Hughes (14)1–2
- P116:12Ondrej Palat Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (10), Jonas Siegenthaler (7)1–1
- P110:03Eric Robinson Goal (9) Poke, assists: Jackson Blake (4), Brent Burns (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:03Eric Robinson Goal (9) Poke, assists: Jackson Blake (4), Brent Burns (8)CAR 1 – 0 NJ · CAR 45% → 61% +16CAR 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P116:12Ondrej Palat Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (10), Jonas Siegenthaler (7)CAR 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 38% → 54% +17NJ 38% → 54%+17 pts
- P116:54Nico Hischier Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Stefan Noesen (10), Luke Hughes (14)CAR 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 54% → 71% +16NJ 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P20:22Brent Burns Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (7)CAR 2 – 2 NJ · CAR 29% → 46% +17CAR 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P24:15Luke Hughes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (5), Jesper Bratt (32)CAR 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 54% → 72% +18NJ 54% → 72%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 55%
- ML CAR +115 / NJ -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NJ: Elo 51.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -124
- CAR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.6 – 2.9 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +15 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +11 Elo | NJ 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.94th of 32 |
| 1st of 3255.7% | Shot share | 54.9%3rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 15th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 10–917th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–16 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 16–17 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 13–21 | 12–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 0–10 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–1 NJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.