Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints1
AvalancheScoring summary
- SO0:00Kirby Dach Goal Snap Shot2–0
- SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- P313:25Cole Caufield Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (27), Lane Hutson (25)1–1
- P19:01Mikko Rantanen Goal (23) Deflected, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (51), Cale Makar (36)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:01Mikko Rantanen Goal (23) Deflected, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (51), Cale Makar (36)MTL 0 – 1 COL · COL 72% → 83% +12COL 72% → 83%+12 pts
- P313:25Cole Caufield Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (27), Lane Hutson (25)MTL 1 – 1 COL · MTL 10% → 42% +32MTL 10% → 42%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 73%
- ML MTL +260 / COL -320
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- COL: Elo 67.1%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -274
- MTL +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +27 | −1 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.68 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +124 Elo | COL 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 70.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 52.5%6th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 25th of 327–12 | Road vs home | 11–814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–17 | 15–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–16 | 22–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–0 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.