Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Jake EvansGoals1
- Alexandre CarrierAssists2
- Alexandre CarrierPoints2
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:08Brendan Gallagher Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (8), Alexandre Carrier (10)5–2
- P312:32Joel Armia Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (7)4–2
- P218:54Nikita Kucherov Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (20), Darren Raddysh (11)3–2
- P218:28Jake Evans Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (11)3–1
- P212:34Christian Dvorak Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (6), Alexandre Carrier (9)2–1
- P20:37Brandon Hagel Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P112:07Alex Newhook Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (16), Patrik Laine (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:07Alex Newhook Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (16), Patrik Laine (2)MTL 1 – 0 TB · MTL 36% → 52% +16MTL 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P20:37Brandon Hagel Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 1 – 1 TB · TB 45% → 62% +18TB 45% → 62%+18 pts
- P212:34Christian Dvorak Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (6), Alexandre Carrier (9)MTL 2 – 1 TB · MTL 40% → 61% +21MTL 40% → 61%+21 pts
- P218:28Jake Evans Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (11)MTL 3 – 1 TB · MTL 65% → 84% +19MTL 65% → 84%+19 pts
- P218:54Nikita Kucherov Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (20), Darren Raddysh (11)MTL 3 – 2 TB · TB 16% → 35% +19TB 16% → 35%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 65%
- ML MTL +175 / TB -210
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- TB: Elo 66.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -186
- MTL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | TB and MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −9 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +122 Elo | TB 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 70.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +1.22nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.7% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 27th of 325–11 | Road vs home | 11–67th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–16 | 18–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 12–9 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 0–4 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.