Montreal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists2
- Mike MathesonPoints2
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals2
- Jason DickinsonAssists1
- Nick FolignoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:51Nick Foligno Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (13), Alex Vlasic (15)2–4
- P39:45Emil Heineman Goal (10) Batted, assists: Mike Matheson (18), Kirby Dach (8)2–3
- P33:01Patrick Maroon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (11), Craig Smith (5)1–3
- P27:05Nick Foligno Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (2), Jason Dickinson (6)1–2
- P118:24Cole Caufield Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (17), Nick Suzuki (26)1–1
- P13:21Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (18), Connor Bedard (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:21Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (18), Connor Bedard (24)MTL 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 42% → 57% +15CHI 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P118:24Cole Caufield Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (17), Nick Suzuki (26)MTL 1 – 1 CHI · MTL 40% → 57% +17MTL 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P27:05Nick Foligno Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (2), Jason Dickinson (6)MTL 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 44% → 63% +19CHI 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P33:01Patrick Maroon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (11), Craig Smith (5)MTL 1 – 3 CHI · CHI 72% → 90% +18CHI 72% → 90%+18 pts
- P39:45Emil Heineman Goal (10) Batted, assists: Mike Matheson (18), Kirby Dach (8)MTL 2 – 3 CHI · MTL 5% → 21% +17MTL 5% → 21%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 58%
- ML MTL -155 / CHI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- MTL: Elo 54.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MTL -140
- CHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −6 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +34 Elo | MTL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.1% | Shot share | 46.1%29th of 32 |
| 30th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%20th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 24th of 327–11 | Road vs home | 7–1025th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–16 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders | 21–16 | 16–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.