St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Cam FowlerGoals2
- Justin FaulkAssists2
- Justin FaulkPoints3
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:18Alexandre Texier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (11), Nathan Walker (4)6–2
- P311:15Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (10), Connor Bedard (23)5–2
- P217:51Cam Fowler Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (4)5–1
- P213:34Dylan Holloway Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (10), Brayden Schenn (14)4–1
- P27:15Justin Faulk Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (11), Oskar Sundqvist (3)3–1
- P115:26Taylor Hall Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (10)2–1
- P18:10Jordan Kyrou Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (9), Dylan Holloway (12)2–0
- P11:40Cam Fowler Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (15), Robert Thomas (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:40Cam Fowler Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (15), Robert Thomas (21)STL 1 – 0 CHI · STL 58% → 72% +14STL 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P18:10Jordan Kyrou Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (9), Dylan Holloway (12)STL 2 – 0 CHI · STL 72% → 83% +12STL 72% → 83%+12 pts
- P115:26Taylor Hall Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (10)STL 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 15% → 28% +12CHI 15% → 28%+12 pts
- P27:15Justin Faulk Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (11), Oskar Sundqvist (3)STL 3 – 1 CHI · STL 74% → 87% +13STL 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P213:34Dylan Holloway Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (10), Brayden Schenn (14)STL 4 – 1 CHI · STL 89% → 96% +7STL 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 58%
- ML STL -150 / CHI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- STL: Elo 56.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -138
- CHI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +42 Elo | STL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.3% | Shot share | 46.0%30th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 14th of 3210–11 | Road vs home | 7–923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–16 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders | 16–22 | 15–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–1 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.