Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints1
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Anton Lundell Goal Snap Shot0–2
- SO0:00Sam Reinhart Goal Snap Shot0–2
- P319:20Rickard Rakell Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (11), Evgeni Malkin (24)2–2
- P38:48Matthew Tkachuk Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (19), Adam Boqvist (4)1–2
- P211:09Sidney Crosby Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (13), Matt Grzelcyk (19)1–1
- P20:36Gustav Forsling Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (24), Sam Reinhart (24)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:36Gustav Forsling Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (24), Sam Reinhart (24)PIT 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 61% → 76% +16FLA 61% → 76%+16 pts
- P211:09Sidney Crosby Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (13), Matt Grzelcyk (19)PIT 1 – 1 FLA · PIT 22% → 41% +18PIT 22% → 41%+18 pts
- P38:48Matthew Tkachuk Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (19), Adam Boqvist (4)PIT 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 56% → 84% +28FLA 56% → 84%+28 pts
- P319:20Rickard Rakell Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (11), Evgeni Malkin (24)PIT 2 – 2 FLA · PIT <1% → 49% +49PIT <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 63%
- ML PIT +160 / FLA -190
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- FLA: Elo 59.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- FLA -170
- PIT +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.4 – 3.1 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −12 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +68 Elo | FLA 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 66.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 52.8%5th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 27th of 326–13 | Road vs home | 10–917th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–20 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–3 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.