Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Noel AcciariGoals1
- Matt NietoAssists1
- Noel AcciariPoints1
Islanders- Casey CizikasGoals2
- Bo HorvatAssists1
- Casey CizikasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:38Anders Lee Goal (15) Wrap-around, assists: none3–6
- P314:43Casey Cizikas Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (13)3–5
- P219:56Rickard Rakell Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (17), Evgeni Malkin (23)3–4
- P213:49Noel Acciari Goal (4) Poke, assists: Matt Nieto (2), Erik Karlsson (22)2–4
- P29:39Casey Cizikas Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Romanov (5), Bo Horvat (17)1–4
- P28:36Anders Lee Goal (14) , assists: none1–3
- P25:39Anthony Duclair Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (14), Brock Nelson (11)1–2
- P116:03Michael Bunting Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (14)1–1
- P114:47Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:47Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (4)PIT 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 59% → 74% +15NYI 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P116:03Michael Bunting Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (14)PIT 1 – 1 NYI · PIT 26% → 41% +15PIT 26% → 41%+15 pts
- P25:39Anthony Duclair Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (14), Brock Nelson (11)PIT 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 58% → 75% +17NYI 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P28:36Anders Lee Goal (14) , assists: nonePIT 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 75% → 88% +13NYI 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P219:56Rickard Rakell Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (17), Evgeni Malkin (23)PIT 3 – 4 NYI · PIT 8% → 22% +14PIT 8% → 22%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 60%
- ML PIT +140 / NYI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- NYI: Elo 50.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYI -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −5 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +6 Elo | NYI 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.626th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 49.9%14th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.8%18th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 26th of 326–11 | Road vs home | 6–1026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–18 | 14–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 2–16 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–16 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–3 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.