Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:46Dylan Larkin Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (23), Joe Veleno (4)2–4
- P314:26J.T. Compher Goal (5) Poke, assists: Erik Gustafsson (7), Jonatan Berggren (4)2–3
- P33:18Drew O'Connor Goal (5) Poke, assists: Erik Karlsson (23), Sidney Crosby (31)2–2
- P23:41Patrick Kane Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (13), Lucas Raymond (22)1–2
- P118:29Drew O'Connor Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cody Glass (8)1–1
- P17:52Jonatan Berggren Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (10), J.T. Compher (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:52Jonatan Berggren Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (10), J.T. Compher (14)PIT 0 – 1 DET · DET 54% → 69% +15DET 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P118:29Drew O'Connor Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cody Glass (8)PIT 1 – 1 DET · PIT 30% → 46% +17PIT 30% → 46%+17 pts
- P23:41Patrick Kane Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (13), Lucas Raymond (22)PIT 1 – 2 DET · DET 53% → 71% +18DET 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P33:18Drew O'Connor Goal (5) Poke, assists: Erik Karlsson (23), Sidney Crosby (31)PIT 2 – 2 DET · PIT 23% → 48% +25PIT 23% → 48%+25 pts
- P314:26J.T. Compher Goal (5) Poke, assists: Erik Gustafsson (7), Jonatan Berggren (4)PIT 2 – 3 DET · DET 51% → 89% +38DET 51% → 89%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML PIT +110 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- DET: Elo 53.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.6 – 2.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | 0 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +22 Elo | DET 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 45.3%32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.8%20th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 26th of 326–12 | Road vs home | 8–1227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–19 | 20–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–17 | 17–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.