New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Ryan PulockAssists1
- Anders LeePoints1
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Philip TomasinoAssists2
- Philip TomasinoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:10Bo Horvat Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Ryan Pulock (11), Adam Pelech (5)2–3
- P312:59Anders Lee Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Romanov (6)1–3
- P36:57Evgeni Malkin Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Philip Tomasino (4), Cody Glass (7)0–3
- P21:36Michael Bunting Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (30), Philip Tomasino (3)0–2
- P13:54Anthony Beauvillier Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (10), Matt Grzelcyk (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:54Anthony Beauvillier Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (10), Matt Grzelcyk (18)NYI 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 46% → 61% +15PIT 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P21:36Michael Bunting Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (30), Philip Tomasino (3)NYI 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 64% → 80% +15PIT 64% → 80%+15 pts
- P36:57Evgeni Malkin Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Philip Tomasino (4), Cody Glass (7)NYI 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 94% → 99% +5PIT 94% → 99%+5 pts
- P312:59Anders Lee Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Romanov (6)NYI 1 – 3 PIT · NYI <1% → 2% +2NYI <1% → 2%+2 pts
- P316:10Bo Horvat Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Ryan Pulock (11), Adam Pelech (5)NYI 2 – 3 PIT · NYI <1% → 8% +8NYI <1% → 8%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 54%
- ML NYI -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- NYI: Elo 43.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.4 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PIT and NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | NYI: Marcus Hogberg (no track record yet) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +47 Elo | PIT 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 47.6%27th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.9%29th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 25th of 327–12 | Road vs home | 10–918th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–21 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–16 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 22–14 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–2 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.