New York Islanders at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals2
- Ryan PulockAssists2
- Ryan PulockPoints3
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- Morgan GeekieAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:10Bo Horvat Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none5–4
- P312:44David Pastrnak Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Zacha (12), Nikita Zadorov (8)4–4
- P34:35David Pastrnak Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (9)4–3
- P33:41Anders Lee Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Ryan Pulock (13)4–2
- P210:18Justin Brazeau Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (7)3–2
- P24:11Anders Lee Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (7)3–1
- P15:33Ryan Pulock Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (7), Adam Pelech (7)2–1
- P13:22Bo Horvat Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (11), Ryan Pulock (12)1–1
- P13:01Cole Koepke Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Mark Kastelic (8), Charlie McAvoy (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:18Justin Brazeau Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (7)NYI 3 – 2 BOS · BOS 15% → 30% +15BOS 15% → 30%+15 pts
- P33:41Anders Lee Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Ryan Pulock (13)NYI 4 – 2 BOS · NYI 76% → 92% +16NYI 76% → 92%+16 pts
- P34:35David Pastrnak Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (9)NYI 4 – 3 BOS · BOS 7% → 23% +16BOS 7% → 23%+16 pts
- P312:44David Pastrnak Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Zacha (12), Nikita Zadorov (8)NYI 4 – 4 BOS · BOS 14% → 50% +35BOS 14% → 50%+35 pts
- OT3:10Bo Horvat Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYI 5 – 4 BOS · NYI 50% → 98% +48NYI 50% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 51%
- ML NYI -115 / BOS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- NYI: Elo 43.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 2.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −9 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +45 Elo | BOS 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.524th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 51.0%10th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.2%26th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 26th of 327–14 | Road vs home | 12–811th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–23 | 14–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–17 | 8–19 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17 | 19–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–3 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.