New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Jean-Gabriel PageauGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints1
Maple Leafs- Steven LorentzGoals1
- Ryan ReavesAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:27John Tavares Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (20), Mitch Marner (38)1–3
- P212:15Steven Lorentz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Reaves (2), Connor Dewar (2)1–2
- P211:59Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (15), Mathew Barzal (5)1–1
- P117:54David Kampf Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (19), Chris Tanev (10)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:54David Kampf Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (19), Chris Tanev (10)NYI 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 54% → 70% +16TOR 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P211:59Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (15), Mathew Barzal (5)NYI 1 – 1 TOR · NYI 27% → 47% +20NYI 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P212:15Steven Lorentz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Reaves (2), Connor Dewar (2)NYI 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 53% → 73% +20TOR 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P319:27John Tavares Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (20), Mitch Marner (38)NYI 1 – 3 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML NYI +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 63.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- NYI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.6 – 2.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −8 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +93 Elo | TOR 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 49.7%16th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 91.3%2nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 26th of 327–13 | Road vs home | 14–76th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–22 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–17 | 13–15 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 22–15 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–0 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.