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Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, NESN

Away

Bruins

20-17-4

4–6

at

Home

Maple Leafs

25-13-2

BOS 44%TOR 56%

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Scotiabank Arena · ESPN+, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.

TOR favored BOS favored10 scoring plays
P1P2P3TOR50%BOS

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Bruins
Maple Leafs

Scoring summary

  • P319:29Auston Matthews Goal (12) Poke, assists: Mitch Marner (42), Matthew Knies (10)4–6
  • P318:10David Pastrnak Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (11), Brad Marchand (17)4–5
  • P317:55Mitch Marner Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (9)3–5
  • P35:28Matthew Knies Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (14), Jake McCabe (10)3–4
  • P34:17David Pastrnak Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: none3–3
  • P33:43Matthew Knies Goal (13) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (20), Mitch Marner (41)2–3
  • P218:44Trent Frederic Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (13)2–2
  • P23:49Morgan Geekie Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (10), Charlie Coyle (4)1–2
  • P23:37Matthew Knies Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Auston Matthews (13), Mitch Marner (40)0–2
  • P13:29Jake McCabe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (39), Chris Tanev (11)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P13:29Jake McCabe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (39), Chris Tanev (11)BOS 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 56% → 70% +14
  2. P218:44Trent Frederic Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (13)BOS 2 – 2 TOR · BOS 24% → 46% +22
  3. P33:43Matthew Knies Goal (13) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (20), Mitch Marner (41)BOS 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 53% → 78% +25
  4. P34:17David Pastrnak Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: noneBOS 3 – 3 TOR · BOS 21% → 47% +25
  5. P35:28Matthew Knies Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (14), Jake McCabe (10)BOS 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 53% → 79% +26

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Maple Leafs 56%

LeanHit
BOS 44%TOR 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
TOR 56%
ML BOS +120 / TOR -140
Pre-line forecast
TOR 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR 57%
Ratings vs. market
+0.8 pts
TOR: Elo 57.1%, market 56.2%
Fair odds
TOR -128
BOS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 2.6 – 2.9 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSTORWhy
Team rating15091531Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+5−2BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +49 EloTOR 57.1%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 55.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTOR 56.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTOR 56.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatTOR
29th of 322.6Goals scored3.115th of 32
14th of 323.0Goals allowed2.77th of 32
24th of 32−0.4Margin+0.310th of 32
10th of 3251.0%Shot share49.6%17th of 32
26th of 3289.3%Save percentage91.6%2nd of 32
13th of 325–5Last 106–44th of 32
23rd of 328–12Road vs home15–76th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BruinsMaple Leafs
145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSTOR
Puck line14–2621–18
Last 106–45–5
Favorite8–1914–16
Underdog6–77–2
Overs–unders18–2219–20
Overs–unders, last 104–68–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 9–4 TOR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.