Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Bobby McMannGoals2
- Max DomiAssists1
- Bobby McMannPoints2
Islanders- Scott MayfieldGoals1
- Adam PelechAssists1
- Scott MayfieldPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:01Bobby McMann Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (13), Max Domi (11)2–1
- P218:15Scott Mayfield Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (6), Adam Pelech (6)1–1
- P210:43Bobby McMann Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (4)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:43Bobby McMann Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (4)TOR 1 – 0 NYI · TOR 50% → 70% +20TOR 50% → 70%+20 pts
- P218:15Scott Mayfield Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (6), Adam Pelech (6)TOR 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 27% → 50% +23NYI 27% → 50%+23 pts
- P317:01Bobby McMann Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (13), Max Domi (11)TOR 2 – 1 NYI · TOR 50% → 95% +45TOR 50% → 95%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 50%
- ML TOR -110 / NYI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- NYI: Elo 45.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NYI -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 2.8 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −4 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +31 Elo | TOR 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 50.0%15th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 13th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 7–1025th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–17 | 15–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–15 | 3–17 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–4 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.