San Jose Sharks at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks
Utah HC- Barrett HaytonGoals1
- Nick BjugstadAssists1
- Nick SchmaltzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:28Barrett Hayton Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (7), Olli Maatta (8)1–2
- P25:57Nick Schmaltz Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (27), Nick DeSimone (1)1–1
- P10:58Fabian Zetterlund Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (25), Cody Ceci (9)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:58Fabian Zetterlund Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (25), Cody Ceci (9)SJ 1 – 0 UTAH · SJ 30% → 44% +14SJ 30% → 44%+14 pts
- P25:57Nick Schmaltz Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (27), Nick DeSimone (1)SJ 1 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 46% → 65% +19UTAH 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P318:28Barrett Hayton Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (7), Olli Maatta (8)SJ 1 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 53% → >99% +46UTAH 53% → >99%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 70%
- ML SJ +220 / UTAH -270
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- UTAH: Elo 68.6%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -234
- SJ +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.7 – 3.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −4 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +136 Elo | UTAH 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 72.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.3% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%13th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 30th of 325–16 | Road vs home | 5–1232nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–16 | 22–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 27–16 | 17–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–24 | 17–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–1 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.