Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Erik CernakAssists1
- Erik CernakPoints1
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Marc-Edouard VlasicAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Scoring summary
- P217:44Anthony Cirelli Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Erik Cernak (9), Brandon Hagel (25)1–2
- P212:55Mario Ferraro Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (24)0–2
- P113:52Tyler Toffoli Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic (1), Jan Rutta (5)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:52Tyler Toffoli Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic (1), Jan Rutta (5)TB 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 32% → 48% +16SJ 32% → 48%+16 pts
- P212:55Mario Ferraro Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (24)TB 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 57% → 77% +19SJ 57% → 77%+19 pts
- P217:44Anthony Cirelli Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Erik Cernak (9), Brandon Hagel (25)TB 1 – 2 SJ · TB 19% → 39% +20TB 19% → 39%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TB 70%
- ML TB -275 / SJ +225
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- TB: Elo 66.5%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -238
- SJ +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.9 – 2.6 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +12 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +119 Elo | TB 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 68.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.9 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.1 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 45.6%31st of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 1–932nd of 32 |
| 8th of 329–7 | Road vs home | 6–1331st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–16 | 25–15 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–10 | — |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders | 16–18 | 19–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–0 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.