New Jersey Devils at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints1
Sharks- Nikolai KovalenkoGoals1
- Alexander WennbergAssists1
- Nikolai KovalenkoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:35Cody Ceci Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (11)2–3
- P35:07Paul Cotter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (15)2–2
- P31:53Macklin Celebrini Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (8), Collin Graf (1)1–2
- P24:19Nico Hischier Goal (19) Deflected, assists: Jack Hughes (32), Jesper Bratt (34)1–1
- P117:40Nikolai Kovalenko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (21), Luke Kunin (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:40Nikolai Kovalenko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (21), Luke Kunin (7)NJ 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 29% → 46% +16SJ 29% → 46%+16 pts
- P24:19Nico Hischier Goal (19) Deflected, assists: Jack Hughes (32), Jesper Bratt (34)NJ 1 – 1 SJ · NJ 51% → 69% +18NJ 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P31:53Macklin Celebrini Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (8), Collin Graf (1)NJ 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 36% → 62% +26SJ 36% → 62%+26 pts
- P35:07Paul Cotter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (15)NJ 2 – 2 SJ · NJ 34% → 63% +29NJ 34% → 63%+29 pts
- P319:35Cody Ceci Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (11)NJ 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 48% → >99% +52SJ 48% → >99%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 74%
- ML NJ -340 / SJ +270
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- NJ: Elo 62.8%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -286
- SJ +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 4.0 – 2.5 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1391 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | +17 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.42 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +91 Elo | NJ 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 74.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 72.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.2% | Shot share | 45.6%31st of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 7th of 3211–8 | Road vs home | 7–1330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–21 | 26–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–19 | — |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 14–27 | 19–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–2 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.