New Jersey Devils at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints1
Ducks- Ryan StromeGoals1
- Frank VatranoAssists2
- Ryan StromePoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:36Ryan Strome Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (8), Frank Vatrano (10)2–3
- P313:20Timo Meier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (20), Stefan Noesen (11)2–2
- P35:31Jonas Siegenthaler Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P33:57Robby Fabbri Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (12), Brian Dumoulin (7)0–2
- P110:05Troy Terry Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (12), Frank Vatrano (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:05Troy Terry Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (12), Frank Vatrano (9)NJ 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 31% → 46% +15ANA 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P33:57Robby Fabbri Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (12), Brian Dumoulin (7)NJ 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 67% → 87% +21ANA 67% → 87%+21 pts
- P35:31Jonas Siegenthaler Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 2 ANA · NJ 11% → 32% +21NJ 11% → 32%+21 pts
- P313:20Timo Meier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (20), Stefan Noesen (11)NJ 2 – 2 ANA · NJ 18% → 57% +39NJ 18% → 57%+39 pts
- P316:36Ryan Strome Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (8), Frank Vatrano (10)NJ 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 45% → 92% +47ANA 45% → 92%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 70%
- ML NJ -275 / ANA +225
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- NJ: Elo 59.8%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- NJ -238
- ANA +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.9 – 2.6 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | +8 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +69 Elo | NJ 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 70.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.627th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.0% | Shot share | 47.1%28th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.8%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 6th of 3211–6 | Road vs home | 7–1228th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–19 | 23–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–17 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 14–25 | 11–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–2 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.