Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Keegan KolesarAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints1
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- William EklundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:40Tomas Hertl Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (24)4–2
- P310:41Timothy Liljegren Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (22), Fabian Zetterlund (16)3–2
- P31:10Victor Olofsson Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (42), Shea Theodore (29)3–1
- P29:49William Eklund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (2), Alexander Wennberg (12)2–1
- P110:08Zach Whitecloud Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (6), Keegan Kolesar (9)2–0
- P18:39Mark Stone Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (28), William Karlsson (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:39Mark Stone Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (28), William Karlsson (11)VGK 1 – 0 SJ · VGK 69% → 81% +12VGK 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P110:08Zach Whitecloud Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (6), Keegan Kolesar (9)VGK 2 – 0 SJ · VGK 81% → 90% +9VGK 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P29:49William Eklund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (2), Alexander Wennberg (12)VGK 2 – 1 SJ · SJ 8% → 19% +11SJ 8% → 19%+11 pts
- P31:10Victor Olofsson Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (42), Shea Theodore (29)VGK 3 – 1 SJ · VGK 83% → 94% +12VGK 83% → 94%+12 pts
- P310:41Timothy Liljegren Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (22), Fabian Zetterlund (16)VGK 3 – 2 SJ · SJ 2% → 13% +11SJ 2% → 13%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 70%
- ML VGK -270 / SJ +220
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- VGK: Elo 67.3%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- VGK -234
- SJ +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.8 – 2.7 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −8 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +126 Elo | VGK 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 66.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.932nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 45.6%32nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 10th of 3210–8 | Road vs home | 8–1330th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–15 | 27–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–13 | — |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 27–15 |
| Overs–unders | 20–19 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 6–0 SJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.