New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Alexander RomanovAssists2
- Alexander RomanovPoints2
Golden KnightsScoring summary
- P317:26Casey Cizikas Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (12), Noah Dobson (16)4–0
- P210:41Bo Horvat Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (15), Alexander Romanov (9)3–0
- P25:30Brock Nelson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (8), Alexander Romanov (8)2–0
- P117:04Anders Lee Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (12)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:04Anders Lee Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (12)NYI 1 – 0 VGK · NYI 40% → 57% +17NYI 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P25:30Brock Nelson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (8), Alexander Romanov (8)NYI 2 – 0 VGK · NYI 60% → 77% +17NYI 60% → 77%+17 pts
- P210:41Bo Horvat Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (15), Alexander Romanov (9)NYI 3 – 0 VGK · NYI 80% → 91% +12NYI 80% → 91%+12 pts
- P317:26Casey Cizikas Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (12), Noah Dobson (16)NYI 4 – 0 VGK · NYI >99% → >99% +0NYI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 62%
- ML NYI +155 / VGK -185
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 68.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -166
- NYI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.4 – 3.1 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +8 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +134 Elo | VGK 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 52.7%6th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 25th of 328–14 | Road vs home | 17–42nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–24 | 25–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–18 | 17–13 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 23–17 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 0–2 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.