Montreal Canadiens at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Kirby DachGoals2
- Lane HutsonAssists3
- Lane HutsonPoints3
Utah HC- Nick BjugstadGoals1
- Nick SchmaltzAssists2
- Nick SchmaltzPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:15Kirby Dach Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (13)5–3
- P36:33Cole Caufield Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (32), Mike Matheson (19)4–3
- P33:07Logan Cooley Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (29), Nick Schmaltz (25)3–3
- P218:34Kirby Dach Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Lane Hutson (31)3–2
- P210:40Patrik Laine Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (3), Alexandre Carrier (12)2–2
- P119:06Nick Bjugstad Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Michael Kesselring (13), Matias Maccelli (8)1–2
- P13:18Mike Matheson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (18), Lane Hutson (30)1–1
- P12:11Josh Doan Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (28), Nick Schmaltz (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:06Nick Bjugstad Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Michael Kesselring (13), Matias Maccelli (8)MTL 1 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 57% → 73% +16UTAH 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P210:40Patrik Laine Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (3), Alexandre Carrier (12)MTL 2 – 2 UTAH · MTL 25% → 44% +19MTL 25% → 44%+19 pts
- P218:34Kirby Dach Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Lane Hutson (31)MTL 3 – 2 UTAH · MTL 45% → 69% +24MTL 45% → 69%+24 pts
- P33:07Logan Cooley Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (29), Nick Schmaltz (25)MTL 3 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 28% → 54% +26UTAH 28% → 54%+26 pts
- P36:33Cole Caufield Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (32), Mike Matheson (19)MTL 4 – 3 UTAH · MTL 46% → 75% +29MTL 46% → 75%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 58%
- ML MTL +130 / UTAH -150
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- UTAH: Elo 58.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -138
- MTL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.5 – 3.0 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +2 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +59 Elo | UTAH 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 62.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.1% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 19th of 329–12 | Road vs home | 6–1332nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–17 | 22–20 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 17–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–19 | 17–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.