Dallas Stars at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Mavrik BourqueAssists1
- Jamie BennPoints1
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jason Robertson Goal Snap Shot1–0
- P217:34Jamie Benn Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (7)1–1
- P215:14Patrik Laine Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (30), Lane Hutson (29)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:14Patrik Laine Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (30), Lane Hutson (29)DAL 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 39% → 61% +22MTL 39% → 61%+22 pts
- P217:34Jamie Benn Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (7)DAL 1 – 1 MTL · DAL 37% → 60% +23DAL 37% → 60%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 67%
- ML DAL -225 / MTL +190
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.4%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- DAL -201
- MTL +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.2 – 2.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −5 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +95 Elo | DAL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.0% | Shot share | 47.1%28th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 88.8%30th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 6th of 3210–7 | Road vs home | 11–914th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–22 | 24–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 16–19 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 23–15 |
| Overs–unders | 15–25 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.