Dallas Stars at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Evgenii DadonovGoals1
- Evgenii DadonovAssists1
- Evgenii DadonovPoints2
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals2
- Artemi PanarinAssists3
- Artemi PanarinPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:17Jamie Benn Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (22), Thomas Harley (15)5–4
- P317:21Thomas Harley Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (11)4–4
- P312:56Vincent Trocheck Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (17), Adam Fox (30)3–4
- P213:14Jason Robertson Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (8), Roope Hintz (7)3–3
- P115:56Evgenii Dadonov Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Mavrik Bourque (6), Thomas Harley (14)2–3
- P112:57Matt Duchene Goal (16) Deflected, assists: Esa Lindell (10)1–3
- P111:24Alexis Lafrenière Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Artemi Panarin (27), Vincent Trocheck (14)0–3
- P19:55Vincent Trocheck Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Will Borgen (2), Artemi Panarin (26)0–2
- P16:56Alexis Lafrenière Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (25), Ryan Lindgren (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:56Evgenii Dadonov Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Mavrik Bourque (6), Thomas Harley (14)DAL 2 – 3 NYR · DAL 27% → 43% +16DAL 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P213:14Jason Robertson Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (8), Roope Hintz (7)DAL 3 – 3 NYR · DAL 36% → 58% +21DAL 36% → 58%+21 pts
- P312:56Vincent Trocheck Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (17), Adam Fox (30)DAL 3 – 4 NYR · NYR 46% → 83% +37NYR 46% → 83%+37 pts
- P317:21Thomas Harley Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (11)DAL 4 – 4 NYR · DAL 5% → 52% +48DAL 5% → 52%+48 pts
- OT2:17Jamie Benn Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (22), Thomas Harley (15)DAL 5 – 4 NYR · DAL 52% → 96% +44DAL 52% → 96%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 61%
- ML DAL -175 / NYR +150
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 52.3%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -159
- NYR +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.6 – 2.9 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −3 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +16 Elo | DAL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.0% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.6%11th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 10th of 328–7 | Road vs home | 8–1020th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–21 | 12–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders | 14–24 | 18–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–2 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.