New York Rangers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Will BorgenGoals1
- Brett BerardAssists2
- Brett BerardPoints2
Blackhawks- Wyatt KaiserGoals1
- Frank NazarAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:36Filip Chytil Goal (10) Deflected, assists: K'Andre Miller (5), Brett Berard (4)6–2
- P218:00Wyatt Kaiser Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (2), TJ Brodie (7)5–2
- P215:16Vincent Trocheck Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (24), Alexis Lafrenière (13)5–1
- P29:54Reilly Smith Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (16), Ryan Lindgren (6)4–1
- P23:28Filip Chytil Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (29), Brett Berard (3)3–1
- P118:22Will Borgen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P115:12Jonny Brodzinski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (28), Ryan Lindgren (5)1–1
- P15:37Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:37Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (25)NYR 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 45% → 60% +15CHI 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P115:12Jonny Brodzinski Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (28), Ryan Lindgren (5)NYR 1 – 1 CHI · NYR 38% → 55% +17NYR 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P118:22Will Borgen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 2 – 1 CHI · NYR 54% → 71% +16NYR 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P23:28Filip Chytil Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (29), Brett Berard (3)NYR 3 – 1 CHI · NYR 72% → 85% +13NYR 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P29:54Reilly Smith Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (16), Ryan Lindgren (6)NYR 4 – 1 CHI · NYR 87% → 95% +8NYR 87% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 55%
- ML NYR -135 / CHI +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- NYR: Elo 55.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- CHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.4 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −4 | NYR: Louis Domingue: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +41 Elo | NYR 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.8% | Shot share | 45.9%30th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 15th of 329–11 | Road vs home | 8–1020th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–27 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–8 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 2–1 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.