Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Miro HeiskanenGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Flyers- Egor ZamulaAssists1
- Egor ZamulaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:47Miro Heiskanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (11), Jason Robertson (24)4–1
- P36:47Morgan Frost Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (26), Egor Zamula (7)3–1
- P28:41Wyatt Johnston Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (18), Nils Lundkvist (5)3–0
- P19:38Roope Hintz Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (9), Jason Robertson (23)2–0
- P11:45Mavrik Bourque Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (2), Logan Stankoven (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:45Mavrik Bourque Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (2), Logan Stankoven (15)DAL 1 – 0 PHI · DAL 60% → 73% +13DAL 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P19:38Roope Hintz Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (9), Jason Robertson (23)DAL 2 – 0 PHI · DAL 74% → 85% +11DAL 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P28:41Wyatt Johnston Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (18), Nils Lundkvist (5)DAL 3 – 0 PHI · DAL 88% → 96% +7DAL 88% → 96%+7 pts
- P36:47Morgan Frost Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (26), Egor Zamula (7)DAL 3 – 1 PHI · PHI <1% → 5% +4PHI <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P316:47Miro Heiskanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (11), Jason Robertson (24)DAL 4 – 1 PHI · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 60%
- ML DAL -165 / PHI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 56.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -149
- PHI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +7 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +45 Elo | DAL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.2% | Shot share | 50.7%11th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 87.7%32nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 10th of 329–7 | Road vs home | 8–1124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–22 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–19 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 15–24 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.