Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Rasmus RistolainenAssists2
- Rasmus RistolainenPoints2
Maple Leafs- Oliver Ekman-LarssonGoals1
- Steven LorentzAssists1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:25Morgan Rielly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (16), John Tavares (21)2–3
- P211:08Scott Laughton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (12), Rasmus Ristolainen (10)2–2
- P118:52Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (2) Poke, assists: Steven Lorentz (4), Connor Dewar (3)1–2
- P14:02Matthew Knies Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (15), Chris Tanev (12)1–1
- P13:24Tyson Foerster Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (9), Rasmus Ristolainen (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:24Tyson Foerster Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (9), Rasmus Ristolainen (9)PHI 1 – 0 TOR · PHI 43% → 58% +15PHI 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P14:02Matthew Knies Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (15), Chris Tanev (12)PHI 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 42% → 57% +15TOR 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P118:52Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (2) Poke, assists: Steven Lorentz (4), Connor Dewar (3)PHI 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 56% → 72% +16TOR 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P211:08Scott Laughton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (12), Rasmus Ristolainen (10)PHI 2 – 2 TOR · PHI 26% → 45% +19PHI 26% → 45%+19 pts
- OT2:25Morgan Rielly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (16), John Tavares (21)PHI 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 52% → 96% +45TOR 52% → 96%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML PHI +125 / TOR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -135
- PHI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −19 | −13 | PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.47 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +80 Elo | TOR 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 91.5%2nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 19th of 329–12 | Road vs home | 16–76th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–20 | 22–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 15–16 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.