Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- John TavaresPoints2
Flyers- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:21Matthew Knies Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (15), Philippe Myers (3)3–2
- P27:55Auston Matthews Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (44), John Tavares (22)2–2
- P27:14Travis Konecny Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Noah Cates (10)1–2
- P21:19John Tavares Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (17), Mitch Marner (43)1–1
- P18:19Travis Konecny Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (13), Cam York (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:19Travis Konecny Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (13), Cam York (7)TOR 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 43% → 59% +16PHI 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P21:19John Tavares Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (17), Mitch Marner (43)TOR 1 – 1 PHI · TOR 38% → 56% +18TOR 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P27:14Travis Konecny Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Noah Cates (10)TOR 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 45% → 64% +19PHI 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P27:55Auston Matthews Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (44), John Tavares (22)TOR 2 – 2 PHI · TOR 36% → 55% +20TOR 36% → 55%+20 pts
- P313:21Matthew Knies Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (15), Philippe Myers (3)TOR 3 – 2 PHI · TOR 52% → 88% +35TOR 52% → 88%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML TOR -145 / PHI +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -133
- PHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 2.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −15 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +52 Elo | TOR 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 50.4%13th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 87.8%32nd of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 11th of 329–8 | Road vs home | 8–1021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–19 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–17 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders | 20–21 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.