Vancouver Canucks at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Jonathan LekkerimakiGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Jonathan LekkerimakiPoints2
Canadiens- Lane HutsonGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:48Nick Suzuki Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (27), Cole Caufield (16)4–5
- P38:51Jake DeBrusk Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (21), Quinn Hughes (36)4–4
- P36:54Lane Hutson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–4
- P32:01Kirby Dach Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (26), Nick Suzuki (29)3–3
- P210:35Kaiden Guhle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (11), Joel Armia (12)3–2
- P23:41Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (12), J.T. Miller (20)3–1
- P23:21J.T. Miller Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Lekkerimaki (1), Tyler Myers (8)2–1
- P110:47J.T. Miller Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (6), Quinn Hughes (35)1–1
- P11:07Cole Caufield Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (18), Nick Suzuki (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:21J.T. Miller Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Lekkerimaki (1), Tyler Myers (8)VAN 2 – 1 MTL · VAN 53% → 71% +18VAN 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P32:01Kirby Dach Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (26), Nick Suzuki (29)VAN 3 – 3 MTL · MTL 23% → 48% +24MTL 23% → 48%+24 pts
- P36:54Lane Hutson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 48% → 77% +29MTL 48% → 77%+29 pts
- P38:51Jake DeBrusk Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (21), Quinn Hughes (36)VAN 4 – 4 MTL · VAN 21% → 52% +31VAN 21% → 52%+31 pts
- OT0:48Nick Suzuki Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (27), Cole Caufield (16)VAN 4 – 5 MTL · MTL 49% → 91% +42MTL 49% → 91%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 54%
- ML VAN -130 / MTL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- VAN: Elo 50.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -119
- MTL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 2.6 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −1 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +3 Elo | VAN 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 46.6%29th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.0%30th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3211–6 | Road vs home | 10–918th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–22 | 22–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 20–18 | 22–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–0 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.