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Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, FanDuel SN South

Away

Predators

12-20-7

3–0

at

Home

Canucks

18-12-8

NSH 63%VAN 37%

You didn't pick this one.

Rogers Arena · ESPN+, FanDuel SN South

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.

VAN favored NSH favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3VAN50%NSH

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Predators
Canucks

    Scoring summary

    • P319:29Colton Sissons Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (18), Gustav Nyquist (9)3–0
    • P318:16Gustav Nyquist Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (2), Colton Sissons (3)2–0
    • P216:53Steven Stamkos Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (14), Filip Forsberg (22)1–0

    Turning points

    The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P216:53Steven Stamkos Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (14), Filip Forsberg (22)NSH 1 – 0 VAN · NSH 58% → 79% +20
    2. P318:16Gustav Nyquist Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (2), Colton Sissons (3)NSH 2 – 0 VAN · NSH 99% → >99% +1
    3. P319:29Colton Sissons Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (18), Gustav Nyquist (9)NSH 3 – 0 VAN · NSH >99% → 100% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Predators 63%

    SolidHit
    NSH 63%VAN 37%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

    Market
    NSH 63%
    ML NSH -195 / VAN +160
    Pre-line forecast
    NSH 54%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    NSH 45%
    Ratings vs. market
    −18.6 pts
    NSH: Elo 44.6%, market 63.2%
    Fair odds
    NSH -172
    VAN +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    NSH 3.1 – 2.4 VAN
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorNSHVANWhy
    Team rating14771511Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Rest—−30VAN on the second night of a back-to-back
    Starting goalies−3−4NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsVAN +38 EloVAN 55.4%
    Market-implied ratingsNSH 56.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastNSH 53.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastNSH 63.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Nashville Predators and Vancouver Canucks compared, with each team's league rank
    NSHStatVAN
    32nd of 322.4Goals scored3.112th of 32
    23rd of 323.2Goals allowed3.222nd of 32
    31st of 32−0.8Margin−0.115th of 32
    16th of 3249.9%Shot share47.6%27th of 32
    13th of 3290.2%Save percentage89.3%26th of 32
    23rd of 324–6Last 104–623rd of 32
    32nd of 323–17Road vs home7–1330th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    PredatorsCanucks
    13501400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonNSHVAN
    Puck line16–2216–21
    Last 104–64–6
    Favorite6–157–15
    Underdog10–79–6
    Overs–unders14–2420–17
    Overs–unders, last 106–45–5

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    NSH 3–7 VAN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.