Vancouver Canucks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Max SassonGoals1
- Jake DeBruskAssists1
- Tyler MyersPoints1
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Andre BurakovskyAssists2
- Vince DunnPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00J.T. Miller Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P319:07Vince Dunn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (12), Matty Beniers (15)3–3
- P39:05Matty Beniers Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (10), Brandon Montour (14)3–2
- P35:35Tyler Myers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (19), Jake DeBrusk (12)3–1
- P27:49Conor Garland Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Di Giuseppe (3), Derek Forbort (3)2–1
- P113:17Max Sasson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (11), Nils Hoglander (5)1–1
- P11:52Chandler Stephenson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (11), Vince Dunn (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:17Max Sasson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (11), Nils Hoglander (5)VAN 1 – 1 SEA · VAN 32% → 48% +16VAN 32% → 48%+16 pts
- P27:49Conor Garland Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Di Giuseppe (3), Derek Forbort (3)VAN 2 – 1 SEA · VAN 48% → 68% +19VAN 48% → 68%+19 pts
- P35:35Tyler Myers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (19), Jake DeBrusk (12)VAN 3 – 1 SEA · VAN 76% → 93% +16VAN 76% → 93%+16 pts
- P39:05Matty Beniers Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (10), Brandon Montour (14)VAN 3 – 2 SEA · SEA 5% → 20% +16SEA 5% → 20%+16 pts
- P319:07Vince Dunn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (12), Matty Beniers (15)VAN 3 – 3 SEA · SEA <1% → 50% +50SEA <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML VAN +100 / SEA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 46.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- VAN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.7 – 2.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −14 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +23 Elo | VAN 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 15th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%18th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3210–6 | Road vs home | 9–1020th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–21 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 19–17 | 18–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–3 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.