Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Capitals- Lars EllerGoals1
- Taylor RaddyshAssists1
- Lars EllerPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:15Nick Suzuki Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (17), Lane Hutson (28)3–2
- P31:54Lars Eller Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ethen Frank (1), Taylor Raddysh (14)2–2
- P213:22Josh Anderson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: none2–1
- P24:56Cole Caufield Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (19), Kaiden Guhle (7)1–1
- P12:56Jakob Chychrun Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:56Jakob Chychrun Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: noneMTL 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 65% → 78% +13WSH 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P24:56Cole Caufield Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (19), Kaiden Guhle (7)MTL 1 – 1 WSH · MTL 22% → 38% +16MTL 22% → 38%+16 pts
- P213:22Josh Anderson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: noneMTL 2 – 1 WSH · MTL 39% → 61% +22MTL 39% → 61%+22 pts
- P31:54Lars Eller Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ethen Frank (1), Taylor Raddysh (14)MTL 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 33% → 59% +26WSH 33% → 59%+26 pts
- OT1:15Nick Suzuki Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (17), Lane Hutson (28)MTL 3 – 2 WSH · MTL 46% → 91% +45MTL 46% → 91%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 66%
- ML MTL +180 / WSH -215
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.4%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -191
- MTL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +32 | −8 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.80 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +66 Elo | WSH 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 66.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.4 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 50.2%14th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 22nd of 328–12 | Road vs home | 14–77th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–17 | 25–16 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–17 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–3 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.