Vancouver Canucks at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals1
- Kiefer SherwoodAssists1
- Conor GarlandPoints1
Capitals- Pierre-Luc DuboisGoals2
- Matt RoyAssists1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:19Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (18)1–2
- P219:23Conor Garland Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (8), Quinn Hughes (37)1–1
- P119:27Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Matt Roy (8), Connor McMichael (15)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:27Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Matt Roy (8), Connor McMichael (15)VAN 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 59% → 75% +16WSH 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P219:23Conor Garland Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (8), Quinn Hughes (37)VAN 1 – 1 WSH · VAN 21% → 43% +22VAN 21% → 43%+22 pts
- OT4:19Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (18)VAN 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 51% → >99% +49WSH 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 61%
- ML VAN +150 / WSH -175
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 61.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -159
- VAN +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.4 – 3.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +7 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +81 Elo | WSH 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 63.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 25th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.7%7th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 5th of 3211–7 | Road vs home | 13–77th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–23 | 25–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–18 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.