Edmonton Oilers at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints2
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:49Connor McDavid Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P31:28Vasily Podkolzin Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (9), Joshua Brown (1)4–3
- P214:15Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Ty Emberson (7), Brett Kulak (10)3–3
- P24:09Ryan Hartman Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (13)2–3
- P118:28Connor McDavid Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (14), Evan Bouchard (26)2–2
- P116:32Zach Hyman Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (34), Connor McDavid (43)1–2
- P116:11Marco Rossi Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (22), Mats Zuccarello (21)0–2
- P13:02Matt Boldy Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (12), Mats Zuccarello (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:32Zach Hyman Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (34), Connor McDavid (43)EDM 1 – 2 MIN · EDM 31% → 47% +16EDM 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P118:28Connor McDavid Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (14), Evan Bouchard (26)EDM 2 – 2 MIN · EDM 46% → 64% +17EDM 46% → 64%+17 pts
- P24:09Ryan Hartman Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (13)EDM 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 37% → 56% +19MIN 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P214:15Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Ty Emberson (7), Brett Kulak (10)EDM 3 – 3 MIN · EDM 39% → 61% +22EDM 39% → 61%+22 pts
- P31:28Vasily Podkolzin Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (9), Joshua Brown (1)EDM 4 – 3 MIN · EDM 59% → 81% +22EDM 59% → 81%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 66%
- ML EDM -220 / MIN +185
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 52.0%, market 66.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -196
- MIN +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.7 – 2.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +14 Elo | EDM 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 59.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 66.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.1% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 91.2%4th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 5th of 3212–8 | Road vs home | 11–1016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–27 | 23–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–26 | 13–14 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–25 | 20–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.