Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints3
Scoring summary
- P219:15Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (42), Evan Bouchard (24)3–5
- P210:58Leon Draisaitl Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (41), Mattias Ekholm (12)2–5
- P25:42Sidney Crosby Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (12), Erik Karlsson (27)1–5
- P113:41Drew O'Connor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (16), Sidney Crosby (35)1–4
- P112:33Leon Draisaitl Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Zach Hyman (11), Connor McDavid (40)1–3
- P19:46Kevin Hayes Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (9), Jesse Puljujarvi (6)0–3
- P17:22Bryan Rust Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (13), Sidney Crosby (34)0–2
- P13:19Rickard Rakell Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (15), Marcus Pettersson (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:19Rickard Rakell Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (15), Marcus Pettersson (12)EDM 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 33% → 48% +14PIT 33% → 48%+14 pts
- P17:22Bryan Rust Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (13), Sidney Crosby (34)EDM 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 49% → 64% +15PIT 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P19:46Kevin Hayes Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (9), Jesse Puljujarvi (6)EDM 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 65% → 78% +13PIT 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P112:33Leon Draisaitl Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Zach Hyman (11), Connor McDavid (40)EDM 1 – 3 PIT · EDM 20% → 34% +13EDM 20% → 34%+13 pts
- P113:41Drew O'Connor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (16), Sidney Crosby (35)EDM 1 – 4 PIT · PIT 67% → 80% +13PIT 67% → 80%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 67%
- ML EDM -230 / PIT +195
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 58.7%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -206
- PIT +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.8 – 2.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +61 Elo | EDM 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 62.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.9% | Shot share | 47.6%27th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%29th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 5th of 3211–7 | Road vs home | 11–1019th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–24 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 16–24 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–0 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.