Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Kevin HayesGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Kevin HayesPoints1
Hurricanes- Jalen ChatfieldGoals1
- Dmitry OrlovAssists1
- Jalen ChatfieldPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:30Sebastian Aho Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (14), Martin Necas (32)3–4
- P31:51Erik Karlsson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (20), Rickard Rakell (15)3–3
- P216:18Seth Jarvis Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (16), Jordan Staal (12)2–3
- P212:45Jalen Chatfield Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (30), Seth Jarvis (18)2–2
- P24:15Seth Jarvis Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (29)2–1
- P15:08Michael Bunting Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (24), Bryan Rust (14)2–0
- P13:47Kevin Hayes Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:15Seth Jarvis Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (29)PIT 2 – 1 CAR · CAR 26% → 43% +17CAR 26% → 43%+17 pts
- P212:45Jalen Chatfield Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (30), Seth Jarvis (18)PIT 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 39% → 60% +21CAR 39% → 60%+21 pts
- P216:18Seth Jarvis Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (16), Jordan Staal (12)PIT 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 60% → 80% +20CAR 60% → 80%+20 pts
- P31:51Erik Karlsson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (20), Rickard Rakell (15)PIT 3 – 3 CAR · PIT 19% → 42% +23PIT 19% → 42%+23 pts
- OT1:30Sebastian Aho Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (14), Martin Necas (32)PIT 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 54% → 95% +41CAR 54% → 95%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 65%
- ML PIT +175 / CAR -210
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- CAR: Elo 59.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -186
- PIT +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 3.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −9 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · CAR: Dustin Tokarski: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +67 Elo | CAR 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 55.9%1st of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 27th of 326–14 | Road vs home | 14–54th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–20 | 20–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 18–17 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 22–18 | 16–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–4 CAR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.