Minnesota Wild at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals2
- Marco RossiAssists4
- Marco RossiPoints4
HurricanesScoring summary
- P317:14Mats Zuccarello Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (20), Marco Rossi (22)4–0
- P39:20Matt Boldy Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (21), Jonas Brodin (11)3–0
- P211:30Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (15), Marco Rossi (20)2–0
- P113:03Mats Zuccarello Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (19), Matt Boldy (19)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:03Mats Zuccarello Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (19), Matt Boldy (19)MIN 1 – 0 CAR · MIN 35% → 51% +16MIN 35% → 51%+16 pts
- P211:30Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (15), Marco Rossi (20)MIN 2 – 0 CAR · MIN 59% → 78% +19MIN 59% → 78%+19 pts
- P39:20Matt Boldy Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (21), Jonas Brodin (11)MIN 3 – 0 CAR · MIN 94% → >99% +5MIN 94% → >99%+5 pts
- P317:14Mats Zuccarello Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (20), Marco Rossi (22)MIN 4 – 0 CAR · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 67%
- ML MIN +190 / CAR -225
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 60.8%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- CAR -201
- MIN +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.3 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +6 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +76 Elo | CAR 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 67.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 56.1%1st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 89.6%24th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 1st of 3214–6 | Road vs home | 14–43rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–19 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 18–16 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 18–21 | 16–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.