Edmonton Oilers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Adam HenriqueGoals2
- Brett KulakAssists2
- Adam HenriquePoints2
BruinsScoring summary
- P316:25Viktor Arvidsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (9)4–0
- P216:35Adam Henrique Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (8), Zach Hyman (10)3–0
- P211:11Connor McDavid Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13)2–0
- P16:33Adam Henrique Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (7), Brett Kulak (8)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:33Adam Henrique Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (7), Brett Kulak (8)EDM 1 – 0 BOS · EDM 56% → 70% +14EDM 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P211:11Connor McDavid Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13)EDM 2 – 0 BOS · EDM 74% → 88% +14EDM 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P216:35Adam Henrique Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (8), Zach Hyman (10)EDM 3 – 0 BOS · EDM 90% → 97% +7EDM 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P316:25Viktor Arvidsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (9)EDM 4 – 0 BOS · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 56%
- ML EDM -140 / BOS +120
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 53.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -128
- BOS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 2.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +23 Elo | EDM 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.525th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.8% | Shot share | 50.8%11th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.2%27th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 6th of 3210–7 | Road vs home | 12–913th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–24 | 15–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–23 | 8–19 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–23 | 20–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–1 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.