Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Jackson LaCombeGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists1
- Jackson LaCombePoints1
Oilers- Darnell NurseGoals1
- Darnell NurseAssists1
- Darnell NursePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:25Leon Draisaitl Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (9), Darnell Nurse (13)2–3
- P36:53Jackson LaCombe Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (14), Leo Carlsson (6)2–2
- P218:32Brett Leason Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P27:57Darnell Nurse Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (7), Corey Perry (6)0–2
- P116:54Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:54Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (22)ANA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 76% → 87% +11EDM 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P27:57Darnell Nurse Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (7), Corey Perry (6)ANA 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 86% → 94% +8EDM 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P218:32Brett Leason Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 1 – 2 EDM · ANA 4% → 14% +9ANA 4% → 14%+9 pts
- P36:53Jackson LaCombe Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (14), Leo Carlsson (6)ANA 2 – 2 EDM · ANA 12% → 35% +23ANA 12% → 35%+23 pts
- P318:25Leon Draisaitl Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (9), Darnell Nurse (13)ANA 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 55% → >99% +44EDM 55% → >99%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 79%
- ML ANA +360 / EDM -500
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- EDM: Elo 73.7%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -383
- ANA +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.3 – 4.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +9 | 0 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +179 Elo | EDM 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 79.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 78.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 54.7%2nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%21st of 32 |
| 4th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 16th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 13–88th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–12 | 14–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 11–22 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–25 | 16–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–4 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.