Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals2
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints3
Jets- Alex IafalloGoals1
- Alex IafalloAssists1
- Alex IafalloPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:34Troy Terry Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: John Gibson (1)4–3
- P318:10Radko Gudas Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (11), Troy Terry (18)3–3
- P317:16Alex Iafallo Goal (6) Wrap-around, assists: Nino Niederreiter (11), Josh Morrissey (33)2–3
- P26:52Troy Terry Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (13), Brian Dumoulin (8)2–2
- P118:58Leo Carlsson Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (8), Alex Killorn (9)1–2
- P117:17Adam Lowry Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (8), Josh Morrissey (32)0–2
- P10:33Mark Scheifele Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (30), Gabriel Vilardi (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:33Mark Scheifele Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (30), Gabriel Vilardi (18)ANA 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 69% → 81% +11WPG 69% → 81%+11 pts
- P26:52Troy Terry Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (13), Brian Dumoulin (8)ANA 2 – 2 WPG · ANA 19% → 35% +16ANA 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P317:16Alex Iafallo Goal (6) Wrap-around, assists: Nino Niederreiter (11), Josh Morrissey (33)ANA 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 54% → 97% +42WPG 54% → 97%+42 pts
- P318:10Radko Gudas Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (11), Troy Terry (18)ANA 3 – 3 WPG · ANA 1% → 46% +45ANA 1% → 46%+45 pts
- OT3:34Troy Terry Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: John Gibson (1)ANA 4 – 3 WPG · ANA 47% → 99% +52ANA 47% → 99%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 69%
- ML ANA +215 / WPG -260
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 75.1%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- WPG -228
- ANA +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.7 – 3.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +13 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +192 Elo | WPG 75.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 72.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 92.3%1st of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 19th of 327–9 | Road vs home | 14–43rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–12 | 21–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 16–12 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–25 | 18–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–3 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.