Edmonton Oilers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:02Leon Draisaitl Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (7), Evan Bouchard (23)4–2
- P37:27Jaden Schwartz Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (10), Kaapo Kakko (13)3–2
- P215:56Chandler Stephenson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P211:52Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (13), Brett Kulak (7)3–0
- P15:18Jeff Skinner Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (2), Derek Ryan (4)2–0
- P10:57Vasily Podkolzin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (30), Viktor Arvidsson (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:57Vasily Podkolzin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (30), Viktor Arvidsson (6)EDM 1 – 0 SEA · EDM 62% → 75% +13EDM 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P15:18Jeff Skinner Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (2), Derek Ryan (4)EDM 2 – 0 SEA · EDM 75% → 86% +10EDM 75% → 86%+10 pts
- P211:52Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (13), Brett Kulak (7)EDM 3 – 0 SEA · EDM 90% → 97% +7EDM 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P215:56Chandler Stephenson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 3 – 1 SEA · SEA 3% → 9% +6SEA 3% → 9%+6 pts
- P37:27Jaden Schwartz Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (10), Kaapo Kakko (13)EDM 3 – 2 SEA · SEA 4% → 17% +13SEA 4% → 17%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 62%
- ML EDM -185 / SEA +155
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 56.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -166
- SEA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.6 – 2.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −13 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +45 Elo | EDM 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.6% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.8%21st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 7th of 329–7 | Road vs home | 9–1120th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–24 | 20–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 16–22 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 4–0 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.