Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals2
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists2
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints2
Penguins- Matt GrzelcykAssists1
- Matt GrzelcykPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kirill Marchenko Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- SO0:00Kent Johnson Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- P317:24Adam Fantilli Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Kent Johnson (13), Zach Werenski (34)3–3
- P312:05Dmitri Voronkov Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (28), Adam Fantilli (10)2–3
- P310:09Rickard Rakell Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (33)1–3
- P30:24Rickard Rakell Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (26), Matt Grzelcyk (21)1–2
- P20:51Michael Bunting Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (32), Erik Karlsson (25)1–1
- P13:20Dmitri Voronkov Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (27), Sean Monahan (27)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:20Dmitri Voronkov Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (27), Sean Monahan (27)CBJ 1 – 0 PIT · CBJ 43% → 58% +15CBJ 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P20:51Michael Bunting Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (32), Erik Karlsson (25)CBJ 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 38% → 56% +18PIT 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P30:24Rickard Rakell Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (26), Matt Grzelcyk (21)CBJ 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 54% → 77% +23PIT 54% → 77%+23 pts
- P310:09Rickard Rakell Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (33)CBJ 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 83% → 97% +13PIT 83% → 97%+13 pts
- P317:24Adam Fantilli Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Kent Johnson (13), Zach Werenski (34)CBJ 3 – 3 PIT · CBJ 4% → 49% +45CBJ 4% → 49%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML CBJ +125 / PIT -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -133
- CBJ +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −3 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +47 Elo | PIT 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 61.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 47.7%27th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%29th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 32nd of 324–15 | Road vs home | 11–915th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–19 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 27–13 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–3 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.