St. Louis Blues at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints3
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals2
- Sean MonahanAssists3
- Sean MonahanPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:59Mathieu Olivier Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (15), Cole Sillinger (16)4–6
- P316:16Brayden Schenn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (9), Jordan Kyrou (18)4–5
- P312:54Colton Parayko Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (17), Alexandre Texier (5)3–5
- P37:24Dmitri Voronkov Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Sean Monahan (26), Jordan Harris (2)2–5
- P36:55Cam Fowler Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (15), Jordan Kyrou (17)2–4
- P35:25Adam Fantilli Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (33), Dante Fabbro (6)1–4
- P34:54Jordan Kyrou Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (10), Dylan Holloway (14)1–3
- P33:44Mikael Pyyhtia Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (14), Sean Monahan (25)0–3
- P22:15Kirill Marchenko Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (24), Kent Johnson (12)0–2
- P119:01Dmitri Voronkov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (32), Ivan Provorov (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:01Dmitri Voronkov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (32), Ivan Provorov (13)STL 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 68% +17CBJ 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P22:15Kirill Marchenko Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (24), Kent Johnson (12)STL 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 68% → 83% +14CBJ 68% → 83%+14 pts
- P33:44Mikael Pyyhtia Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (14), Sean Monahan (25)STL 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 92% → 98% +6CBJ 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P34:54Jordan Kyrou Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (10), Dylan Holloway (14)STL 1 – 3 CBJ · STL 1% → 7% +6STL 1% → 7%+6 pts
- P316:16Brayden Schenn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (9), Jordan Kyrou (18)STL 4 – 5 CBJ · STL <1% → 7% +7STL <1% → 7%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 51%
- ML STL -105 / CBJ -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- CBJ: Elo 53.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 2.8 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +25 Elo | CBJ 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 50.8%11th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.0%31st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–624th of 32 |
| 14th of 3211–11 | Road vs home | 12–811th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–16 | 20–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 17–23 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 0–2 CBJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.