Detroit Red Wings at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Blue Jackets- James van RiemsdykGoals2
- James van RiemsdykAssists1
- James van RiemsdykPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:24Jonatan Berggren Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Motte (1), Ben Chiarot (6)5–4
- P317:19James van Riemsdyk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (9), Zach Werenski (31)4–4
- P34:54Dylan Larkin Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (15), Patrick Kane (11)4–3
- P218:40Sean Monahan Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (6), Zach Werenski (30)3–3
- P211:09Zach Werenski Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P117:09Alex DeBrincat Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (17), Dylan Larkin (17)3–1
- P114:39Erik Gustafsson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Holl (3)2–1
- P16:55Patrick Kane Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (9), Alex DeBrincat (14)1–1
- P12:42James van Riemsdyk Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Cole Sillinger (15), Ivan Provorov (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:39Erik Gustafsson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Holl (3)DET 2 – 1 CBJ · DET 49% → 65% +16DET 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P218:40Sean Monahan Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (6), Zach Werenski (30)DET 3 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 28% → 51% +23CBJ 28% → 51%+23 pts
- P34:54Dylan Larkin Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (15), Patrick Kane (11)DET 4 – 3 CBJ · DET 49% → 76% +27DET 49% → 76%+27 pts
- P317:19James van Riemsdyk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (9), Zach Werenski (31)DET 4 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 4% → 50% +46CBJ 4% → 50%+46 pts
- P319:24Jonatan Berggren Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Motte (1), Ben Chiarot (6)DET 5 – 4 CBJ · DET 50% → >99% +50DET 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 51%
- ML DET -105 / CBJ -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- CBJ: Elo 52.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +3 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +17 Elo | CBJ 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.4% | Shot share | 50.8%11th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.2%31st of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 25th of 326–10 | Road vs home | 12–79th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–16 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 18–19 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–0 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.