Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators
Blues- Brayden SchennGoals1
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists1
- Brayden SchennPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:07Brandon Saad Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (16)0–4
- P214:15Brandon Saad Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (16), Robert Thomas (22)0–3
- P115:50Brandon Saad Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none0–2
- P17:26Brayden Schenn Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Dylan Holloway (13)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:26Brayden Schenn Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Dylan Holloway (13)OTT 0 – 1 STL · STL 54% → 69% +15STL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P115:50Brandon Saad Goal (5) Backhand, assists: noneOTT 0 – 2 STL · STL 70% → 83% +13STL 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P214:15Brandon Saad Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (16), Robert Thomas (22)OTT 0 – 3 STL · STL 88% → 96% +8STL 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P318:07Brandon Saad Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (16)OTT 0 – 4 STL · STL >99% → 100% +0STL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 54%
- ML OTT +110 / STL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- STL: Elo 60.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- OTT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.6 – 2.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +1 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +74 Elo | STL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 48.3%24th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 17th of 329–11 | Road vs home | 7–1025th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–22 | 23–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 22–10 |
| Overs–unders | 16–21 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–2 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.