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Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, FanDuel SN West

Away

Kings

24-12-5

0–1

at

Home

Oilers

27-13-3

LA 35%EDM 65%

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Rogers Place · ESPN+, FanDuel SN West

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors EDM.

EDM75%50%75%LAStartP1P2Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Kings
    Oilers

    Scoring summary

    • P218:37Connor McDavid Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (14), Leon Draisaitl (33)0–1

    Turning points

    The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P218:37Connor McDavid Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (14), Leon Draisaitl (33)LA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 59% → 80% +21

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Oilers 65%

    SolidHit
    LA 35%EDM 65%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

    Market
    EDM 65%
    ML LA +175 / EDM -210
    Pre-line forecast
    EDM 63%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    EDM 59%
    Ratings vs. market
    −5.7 pts
    EDM: Elo 59.4%, market 65.1%
    Fair odds
    EDM -186
    LA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    LA 2.3 – 3.2 EDM
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorLAEDMWhy
    Team rating15351565Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies00LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsEDM +66 EloEDM 59.4%
    Market-implied ratingsEDM 63.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastEDM 63.0%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastEDM 65.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
    LAStatEDM
    15th of 323.0Goals scored3.39th of 32
    2nd of 322.5Goals allowed2.89th of 32
    7th of 32+0.5Margin+0.59th of 32
    8th of 3252.4%Shot share55.3%2nd of 32
    11th of 3290.6%Save percentage89.8%20th of 32
    9th of 326–4Last 107–32nd of 32
    17th of 3210–13Road vs home14–88th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    KingsOilers
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonLAEDM
    Puck line20–2016–26
    Last 104–64–6
    Favorite8–1413–25
    Underdog12–63–1
    Overs–unders14–2618–24
    Overs–unders, last 103–74–6

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    LA 3–7 EDM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.