Los Angeles Kings at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Alex TurcotteGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Alex TurcottePoints1
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:14Adrian Kempe Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (19), Anze Kopitar (28)2–1
- P310:22Mark Scheifele Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (19), Kyle Connor (31)1–1
- P24:39Alex Turcotte Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (19), Jacob Moverare (4)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:39Alex Turcotte Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (19), Jacob Moverare (4)LA 1 – 0 WPG · LA 50% → 68% +18LA 50% → 68%+18 pts
- P310:22Mark Scheifele Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (19), Kyle Connor (31)LA 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 18% → 50% +32WPG 18% → 50%+32 pts
- OT1:14Adrian Kempe Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (19), Anze Kopitar (28)LA 2 – 1 WPG · LA 50% → 93% +43LA 50% → 93%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 50%
- ML LA -110 / WPG -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- WPG: Elo 54.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -100
- LA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 2.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −31 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.76 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +30 Elo | WPG 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +1.11st of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 17th of 329–12 | Road vs home | 15–65th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–19 | 22–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 17–14 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–24 | 21–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–2 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.