Detroit Red Wings at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists3
- Moritz SeiderPoints3
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Neal PionkAssists1
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:31Dylan Larkin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (25), Moritz Seider (20)4–2
- P316:45Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (23), Vladislav Namestnikov (11)3–2
- P37:14Alex DeBrincat Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (13)3–1
- P25:48Josh Morrissey Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (23), Nino Niederreiter (12)2–1
- P24:33Lucas Raymond Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (19), Patrick Kane (12)2–0
- P16:25Dylan Larkin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (24), Moritz Seider (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:25Dylan Larkin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (24), Moritz Seider (18)DET 1 – 0 WPG · DET 36% → 51% +15DET 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P24:33Lucas Raymond Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (19), Patrick Kane (12)DET 2 – 0 WPG · DET 57% → 74% +17DET 57% → 74%+17 pts
- P25:48Josh Morrissey Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (23), Nino Niederreiter (12)DET 2 – 1 WPG · WPG 25% → 42% +17WPG 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P37:14Alex DeBrincat Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (13)DET 3 – 1 WPG · DET 73% → 92% +19DET 73% → 92%+19 pts
- P316:45Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (23), Vladislav Namestnikov (11)DET 3 – 2 WPG · WPG <1% → 7% +7WPG <1% → 7%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 65%
- ML DET +175 / WPG -210
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- WPG: Elo 67.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -186
- DET +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.3 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +11 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +127 Elo | WPG 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 66.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +1.11st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.5% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 22nd of 327–10 | Road vs home | 14–55th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–16 | 21–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 16–13 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19 | 19–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–3 WPG in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.