Nashville Predators at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists1
- Roman JosiPoints2
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals1
- Adam LowryAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:55Nino Niederreiter Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (14)2–5
- P39:25Roman Josi Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Vinnie Hinostroza (1), Gustav Nyquist (10)2–4
- P37:51Gabriel Vilardi Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (22), Mark Scheifele (25)1–4
- P216:45Filip Forsberg Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (19), Jonathan Marchessault (16)1–3
- P118:36Kyle Connor Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (24), Ville Heinola (1)0–3
- P16:46Josh Morrissey Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (7), Adam Lowry (13)0–2
- P16:30Morgan Barron Goal (4) , assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:30Morgan Barron Goal (4) , assists: noneNSH 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 58% → 72% +14WPG 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P16:46Josh Morrissey Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (7), Adam Lowry (13)NSH 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 72% → 84% +11WPG 72% → 84%+11 pts
- P118:36Kyle Connor Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (24), Ville Heinola (1)NSH 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 86% → 93% +8WPG 86% → 93%+8 pts
- P216:45Filip Forsberg Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (19), Jonathan Marchessault (16)NSH 1 – 3 WPG · NSH 3% → 9% +7NSH 3% → 9%+7 pts
- P37:51Gabriel Vilardi Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (22), Mark Scheifele (25)NSH 1 – 4 WPG · WPG 96% → >99% +4WPG 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 59%
- ML NSH +135 / WPG -155
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 65.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- WPG -143
- NSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.5 – 3.0 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +8 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +111 Elo | WPG 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +1.01st of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 32nd of 325–17 | Road vs home | 14–66th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–22 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–26 | 20–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–3 WPG in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.