Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals3
- Fedor SvechkovAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints3
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:33Ryan O'Reilly Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (13), Colton Sissons (4)4–1
- P39:19Fedor Svechkov Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none3–1
- P218:22Mikael Backlund Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (12)2–1
- P211:37Ryan O'Reilly Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (15), Filip Forsberg (24)2–0
- P24:21Ryan O'Reilly Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Fedor Svechkov (1), Filip Forsberg (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:21Ryan O'Reilly Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Fedor Svechkov (1), Filip Forsberg (23)NSH 1 – 0 CGY · NSH 47% → 65% +18NSH 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P211:37Ryan O'Reilly Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (15), Filip Forsberg (24)NSH 2 – 0 CGY · NSH 68% → 84% +16NSH 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P218:22Mikael Backlund Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (12)NSH 2 – 1 CGY · CGY 12% → 29% +17CGY 12% → 29%+17 pts
- P39:19Fedor Svechkov Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneNSH 3 – 1 CGY · NSH 79% → 95% +16NSH 79% → 95%+16 pts
- P318:33Ryan O'Reilly Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (13), Colton Sissons (4)NSH 4 – 1 CGY · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 54%
- ML NSH +110 / CGY -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- CGY: Elo 60.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -119
- NSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.1 – 3.4 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +12 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +73 Elo | CGY 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.4 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%14th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324–17 | Road vs home | 13–89th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–22 | 21–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 14–25 | 16–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–4 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.