Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Jacob MoverareGoals1
- Jacob MoverarePoints1
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals1
- Matt CoronatoAssists1
- Matt CoronatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:36Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (12), Nazem Kadri (14)1–2
- P28:58Matt Coronato Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (12)1–1
- P16:19Jacob Moverare Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:19Jacob Moverare Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 1 – 0 CGY · LA 46% → 61% +15LA 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P28:58Matt Coronato Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (12)LA 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 33% → 53% +20CGY 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P34:36Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (12), Nazem Kadri (14)LA 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 52% → 78% +26CGY 52% → 78%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 54%
- ML LA +110 / CGY -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- CGY: Elo 49.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -119
- LA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.6 – 2.9 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +10 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +2 Elo | LA 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 50.3%12th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 15th of 3210–12 | Road vs home | 13–911th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–20 | 21–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 14–25 | 16–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–3 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.